The hidden winner from the Apple vs Samsung decision

Apple walks away with a ruling that Samsung copied the iPhone. Samsung will appeal and look to have the decision mitigated as much as possible. And over in the corner, Microsoft and Nokia look at each other, nod their heads, and smile. This was a good court verdict for Windows Phone.
Round one of the Apple/Samsung patent dispute is over, with Apple in the ascendancy. The public perception is not going to be over certain models of older Samsung handsets, the exact patents and software methods used, or the differences between Samsung’s UI layer TouchWiz and Google’s default Android UI layer.
It’s going to be ‘Android copied the iPhone’.

For the last year, every review of Windows Phone powered handsets has noted the radically different UI formerly known as Metro. It does take a little getting used to, but like any new toy once you get the basics Windows Phone is as fast and capable for the majority of smartphone users. There’s no chance that Windows Phone will be mistaken for iOS (and if it was, part of Apple’s evidence was the licensing of certain patents to Microsoft for use in their smartphone OS).
Everyone is expecting Nokia to announce the first Windows Phone 8 smartphone next month on September 5th. It’s an event that’s sure to get coverage (even if it is in a rather busy period of announcements from companies that are trying to get in before Apple’s September 12th event). Nokia and Microsoft have been handed a competitive advantage.
In a world where Android has copied iOS, they are going to waltz up to the press and go ‘look at our phone, you can think differently!’ Another subtle dig at Android, a strong selling point to consumers, and a key differentiator in the smartphone ecosystem. Samsung is handed the lemons, but it’s Nokia that will get to make the first batch of lemonade.
What happens now to Android as a whole is going to be very interesting. While the appeals process for this case may go on for some time, there will be a chilling effect on other manufacturers, who will be watching the cost of licensing the patents on the ‘free’ Android OS with trepidation. Expect Apple to be drafting invoices in the very near future. But will the manufacturers who just want a modern smartphone OS turn away from the uncertainty in Android? Will they want a solution that is fully licensed, covers all the patents, and will let them stand out in the marketplace? If so, Microsoft are going to welcome them with open arms.
And when Windows Phone 8 get the traction that many expect it will, what will Samsung do?
They are on top of the heap at the moment with the Galaxy range of devices, but they also have something interesting on the back burner. The Focus range… essentially the Galaxy hardware but running Windows Phone rather than Android OS. They’ve already said Windows Phone 8 devices will be arriving before the end of 2012, could they now put a little more emphasis on the Windows Phone line?
The last thing Samsung will want to do is be left stranded in the courts holding their Android football while everyone else runs ahead to score with Windows Phone handsets. Nokia are all-in on the new platform, HTC could see it as a way to bypass Samsung’s dominance in Android, and both Huawei and ZTE are ready to leverage Microsoft’s OS.
Samsung was probably planning to do just enough to stay involved in Windows Phone at the start of this year, but I expect them to take a bit more interest in the platform, do a little bit more marketing of their new Windows Phone handsets, and to put more skin in the game to make sure they’re not left without a chair when the music stops.
Apple took the victory, Samsung lost in court, but the true winner looks to be Microsoft.